Month: October 2012

October
29

Provided by: Jon McGraw

Consumers or Business?

Who’s right, consumers or businesses? As it relates to the U.S. economy, consumers seem to feel optimistic about it while businesses are continuing to hunker down. This split showed up in last week’s release of the first estimate of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP), defined as the output of goods and services produced by…

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October
29

Provided by: Jon McGraw

Economic Notes – October 29, 2012

Durable goods orders rose more than expected in September, up +9.9% versus a consensus forecast of +7.5%. The underlying components, however, were mixed, as the transportation component (mostly aircraft orders) made the largest contribution to results. Ex-transportation, orders were up +2%, and the ‘core’ capital orders measure was flat on the month. Shipments were relatively…

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October
24

Provided by: Jon McGraw

FOMC Notes – October 24, 2012

The FOMC completed their meeting today, with largely the same outcome as we’ve come to expect from the past several meetings. Wish we could say something new came out of it, but this was largely not the case: continued low rates through mid-2015 and a focus on ‘quantitative easing’ and ‘twist’ activities (read selective bond…

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October
22

Provided by: Jon McGraw

Stock market crash?

Twenty-five years later, are there any lasting lessons from the October 1987 stock market crash? You may recall that on October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6 percent. This drop was far steeper than the 12.8 percent decline on October 28, 1929, the day many consider the start of the Great Depression…

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October
22

Provided by: Jon McGraw

Economic Notes – October 22, 2012

Retail sales for September rose more than expected, at +1.1% versus a consensus estimate of +0.8%. When looking at the ‘core’ sales (which subtracts autos, gasoline and building materials), the result was the same (+1.1%), relative to expected (+0.7% in that case). Sales for July and August were also revised upward, which is a positive…

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October
15

Provided by: Jon McGraw

Indicators at 5 year extremes & Buffett’s secrets to success…

Two widely watched indicators just hit five-year extreme levels – and that’s a positive for the economy. Consumer sentiment hit a five-year high in the preliminary October reading, as measured by the University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters sentiment gauge. This gauge “covers how consumers view their personal finances as well as business and buying conditions,” according…

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October
08

Provided by: Jon McGraw

Jobs and Japan

Encouraging, but still lackluster. That’s how one analyst described the September jobs report released last Friday by the Labor Department. On the encouraging side, the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level since January 2009 and the previous two month’s reports were revised upward to show 86,000 more jobs were created than originally reported. On…

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October
08

Provided by: Jon McGraw

Economic Notes – October 8, 2012

The monthly ISM manufacturing index number for September rose more than expected, from 49.6 to 51.5 (versus consensus expectations of 49.7). Contained in the report were increases in new orders, production, employment and supplier deliveries (virtually every category). Non-manufacturing ISM was also higher than expected for September, with a rise from 53.7 to 55.1, which…

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October
01

Provided by: Jon McGraw

Economic Notes 10-1-2012

One of the more closely-watched reports, durable goods, or items that are expected to last at least three years once purchased, dropped by -13.2% in August, which was much weaker than the expected -5.0% result. While most of this decline was due to the usually sporadic results from the transportation portion (aircraft orders were down),…

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October
01

Provided by: Jon McGraw

It’s A Tale of Two Cities

Despite all the concern about the fiscal cliff, the sovereign debt crisis, and saber-rattling in the Middle East, the U.S. stock market has posted a strong year-to-date gain. With just three months left in the year, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index is up 14.6 percent, while the NASDAQ composite index, which measures more than…

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