Wall Street has a way of creating ‘investments, tools and rules’ that tend to contribute to sharp moves, both up and down in the investment markets. With the popularity currently given to passive investing we now have more Index and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) than we do individual stocks.

“Many notable investors have raised concerns about the influence of ETFs on the market and whether demand for these funds can inflate stock values into fragile bubbles. Some ETFs rely on portfolio models that are untested in different market conditions and can lead to extreme inflows and outflows from the funds which have a negative impact on market stability.” On top of this many ETFs use leverage in their capital structures which may compound these problems. “Problems with ETFs were significant factors in the flash crashes and market declines in May 2010, August 2015, and February 2018.” (Investopedia)

Add in High Frequency Trading strategies (HFT) and a Tweet by the President or a comment from a Fed Governor, or popular analyst or CEO, can move markets dramatically in minutes.

“High-frequency trading … is a program trading platform that uses powerful computers to transact a large number of orders at fractions of a second. It uses complex algorithms to analyze multiple markets and execute orders based on market conditions. Typically, the traders with the fastest execution speeds are more profitable than traders with slower execution speeds.” (Investopedia)

In our opinion, the decline in Q4 2018 was started by concerns about the Fed raising rates, as well as slowing growth in Europe and China leading to the next US recession. The decline picked up un-needed extreme volatility because of the combination of ETF’s and HFT. When the selling was done, valuations had improved from about 23x earning for the S&P 500 about 16x estimated 2019 earnings.

As 2019 rolled in, the easing of concerns about the next recession subsided and the volatility from ETF’s and HFT went to work the other way. Stocks had their best January gains in more than 30 years: The glass was once again ½ full and positive trends became the focus.

The widely watched January effect says ‘as goes January, so goes the year.’ Our IPC believes that while there may be some historical trends worth paying attention to, each day we live through has its own unique factors and blindly following indicators can get investors in trouble. As such we do the best we can to separate the noise from the news and focus on the multi-year trend consistency of economic cycles.

Brining these concepts into action: As 2018 ended, because of both our primary focus on economic cycle trends as well as our secondary focus on technical trends, we held more cash in portfolios that we had in years. Our large cash and defensive positioning had an impressive impact on performance during the Q4 decline. As 2019 started and markets stabilized, we shifted from the technical ‘hold-cash’ to ‘invest-cash’ position, and much of the cash that had built up in Q4 was invested through a full rebalance.

As the stock market rally continued through January and February, we have seen the pendulum once again swing from undervalued at the end of 2018 to a more overvalued condition. Today, technically, the markets are challenged too. The S&P 500 (as seen in the chart below) is at a point of resistance and will need some good news to break above the triple top resistance from Q4 2018.

Graphic courtesy of Finviz.com 

To specifically address this short-term volatility conundrum, we consider the needs of each of our clients on a case by case basis. At a very high level: If cash is needed in the near term, we sell the recent rally and rebalance those assets over to cash (where we currently seeing about 2% rate of return without risk to principal). If new assets are coming in for investment, we will opportunistically, yet likely more slowly, invest these new assets.

Stepping back to the core focus for the Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee (IPC) and positioning of assets for the various stages of economic cycles: We believe the US and major global economies will continue to grow in the months to come, however growth is slowing and the time is here for more conservative positioning.

As we move into Spring (yea!) we will continue to proactively seek opportunities while remaining focused on our long-term investment objective of achieving a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles.

If you are interested in learning more about Buttonwood Financial Group and our Investment Policy Committee, email  Info@ButtonwoodFG.com  to schedule a converation!

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The Buttonwood Agreement: Where American Finance Took Root — and Why Our Name Exists The Buttonwood Agreement was a compact signed on May 17, 1792, by 24 stockbrokers and merchants beneath a buttonwood tree at 68 Wall Street in New York City. It established the rules of organized securities trading in America and laid the foundation for what would become the New York Stock Exchange. Buttonwood Financial Group takes its name directly from this founding moment; as a daily commitment to the integrity, transparency, and long-term thinking those original brokers put on paper. What was the Buttonwood Agreement, and why it still matters The Buttonwood Agreement came at a moment of crisis. The Panic of 1792, America's first speculative bubble and market collapse, had shattered public confidence in capital markets. Prominent financiers defaulted. Prices fell. Investors panicked. Alexander Hamilton worked to stabilize the system, but the lasting fix came from the professionals themselves. On May 17, 1792, 24 brokers gathered under a buttonwood (sycamore) tree outside 68 Wall Street and signed a two-sentence agreement: they would deal only with each other, charge a standard commission of one-quarter percent, and give preference to fellow signers in all negotiations. Simple. But the effect was transformative. By agreeing to hold a higher standard collectively, they rebuilt confidence in the market itself. The Buttonwood Agreement is widely regarded as the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange and of organized American finance. Why Buttonwood Financial Group carries this name Boutique wealth management firms are built on process and trust. When we named our firm Buttonwood Financial Group, the choice wasn't aesthetic; it was philosophical. Our name is a daily accountability measure; a reminder that the values those brokers signed onto in 1792 — integrity, structure, and responsibility — are exactly the values our clients deserve today. The families and individuals we serve aren't looking for surface answers and financial products. They're looking for an experienced team that has been tested across market conditions, that communicates honestly, and that approaches every client relationship from a fiduciary capacity in a long-term commitment. That's what an established boutique wealth management firm looks like in practice. What experience really means Experience in this industry isn't about credentials alone. It means you have been present with clients through market downturns and periods of uncertainty. You have worked alongside families through estate complexity, business transitions, and inheritance conversations. You have coordinated tax strategy, cash flows, and generational goals at the same time; because for most families, those things can't be separated. Our Team brings that depth to every engagement. Not because we're proud of our tenure, but because the people we serve deserve to work with real people whose judgment has been informed by real world complexity and a wide range of client circumstances. The values that haven't changed in 234 years The Buttonwood Agreement was forged in a crisis to restore confidence. That context mirrors what many clients feel when they first reach out to a firm like Buttonwood. The financial world is complex, opaque, and hard to navigate. Our commitment is to bring transparency, fiduciary responsibility, and honest communication to every relationship, the same values those brokers enshrined in 1792. Roots matter. They tell you where a firm stands when things get hard. On Buttonwood Agreement Day, we honor that founding moment, and recommit to carrying it forward. Connect with Buttonwood Financial Group If you're evaluating whether your current wealth management relationship reflects these values, we'd welcome the conversation. Our advisors work with individuals, families, and business owners on comprehensive, fiduciary-driven financial plans built around your long-term goals. Frequently Asked Questions What is the Buttonwood Agreement? The Buttonwood Agreement was a compact signed on May 17, 1792, by 24 stockbrokers and merchants in New York City. It established standardized rules for securities trading, dealing only among members, and charging a fixed commission. It is considered the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange. When is Buttonwood Agreement Day? Buttonwood Agreement Day is observed annually on May 17, marking the date the original agreement was signed in 1792 outside 68 Wall Street in New York City. Why is the Buttonwood Agreement significant in finance? The Buttonwood Agreement replaced chaotic, unregulated securities auctions with a system of structured, trust-based trading. It restored public confidence after the Panic of 1792 and established the foundational principles, integrity, accountability, and standardized commissions, that governed Wall Street for nearly two centuries. What does Buttonwood Financial Group do? Buttonwood Financial Group is an independent SEC Registered Investment Adviser. A boutique wealth management firm. The firm works with individuals, families, and business owners to provide both financial planning and investment management services. By serving as the primary financial advisor and administrator, Buttonwood is essentially acting as the family's "CFO" while the client remains as the family "CEO." Buttonwood strives to organize, formalize, implement, and monitor financial strategies consistent with clients' multi-generational goals and objectives. What makes a boutique wealth management firm different? Boutique wealth management firms typically offer more personalized service, deeper advisor relationships, and a fiduciary-first approach. Advisors and their support teams generally work with fewer clients and provide more integrated guidance and may reach a deeper level of strategy across investments, tax, business and estate planning, and financial planning. How do I choose an experienced financial advisor? We often see the following criteria: Look for advisors with a fiduciary obligation, verifiable credentials (CFP, CFA, or similar), a transparent fee structure, and experience working with clients whose situations are similar to your own. Confirm the advisor's registration status at adviserinfo.sec.gov. B uttonwood Financial Group is a registered investment adviser. The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Past results are not indicative of future performance. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please consult a qualified professional for advice specific to your situation.

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