Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee Update – June 2021

Economic Recovery Continues 

As we approach the halfway point of 2021, we continue to see support for the optimistic base case of a strong economy. In mid-May we received impactful guidance from the CDC removing the need for mask mandates for those who had received vaccinations. It’s likely these comments accomplished two things: First, it gave those who had received the vaccine a green light to re-engage, and secondly, for those who hadn’t received a shot, it may have provided a bit of encouragement to do so.   

 

Baseball teams began to announce the end to capacity restrictions for the rest of the season, and by May 25 th  the NFL  announced  30 of the 32 teams had been given approval to open to 100% capacity this fall.  Summer travel guidance  is becoming less restrictive and most experts agree that we will likely not see another COVID flare up until the fall – if it is to happen. Additionally, other developed nations are  easing restrictions on international travel for those who are fully vaccinated.

 

Inflation Remains the Focused Risk 

 

Despite ‘Help Wanted’ signs everywhere,   labor shortages  are the new normal in the food, travel & service industries. Many states are opting to remove federal enhanced unemployment benefits which could entice workers to return to work sooner. However, if understaffed and undertrained employees at hotels and restaurants lead to poor service, it’s likely the initial impact of the ‘reopening experience’ may fizzle faster than it would if the experience was amazing. Unfortunately,   small businesses  may be disproportionately affected as many lack the means to increase wages to compete with larger counterparts.   

 

On June 10 th  we received a hot CPI inflation report. On a y/y basis, the CPI increased 5.0%, the most since August 2008, while core CPI advanced 3.8%, the most since June 1992. As we have cautioned, a good part of the surge in inflation compares prices today to the lockdown period last year. Ned Davis Research estimates 1.0% of headline CPI inflation and 1.1% of core CPI inflation in May was due to the base effect. The trimmed-mean CPI, which omits outliers, increased 2.6% y/y, the most since January 2012, but well below core CPI inflation. The median CPI increased at a steady 2.1% y/y rate, barely up from the recent low of 2.0% y/y a couple of months ago.  

Another risk to higher inflation is the continuation of supply chain disruptions for  everything from microchips to cardboard . The lack of supply and increasing demand with reopening is causing inflation to increase. This in-turn will eventually prompt the fed to raise interest rates.   

The consensus remains that the underlying inflation pressures are still broadly contained, but the ‘transitory’ inflation story is starting to see doubt. On June 18 th , the S&P 500 finished its worst week since February, after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said interest rates may need to rise in 2022 to tamp down possible inflation. His comments came after the Fed on Wednesday added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year, pressuring stock prices.   

Positioning Investment Assets  

In late May we rebalanced tax advantaged accounts, and in early June we shifted to a ‘hold cash’ position. Both moves prepare portfolios for a possible disorderly market move where inflation expectations become unhinged. One of the methods we used to help insulate portfolios from potential inflation-induced downdrafts is to further underweight fixed income and other duration-sensitive assets which we believe may be underpricing the inflation risk premium. In conjunction, we have increased exposure to real assets via the addition of commodities.  

Consistent with this theme, we believe nominal yield curves will continue to steepen, not just in the US but across Europe as well, pulled up by accelerating economies, an abundance of liquidity, and pent-up consumer demand. As such we believe global value (financial) stocks are likely well positioned to continue to rally in this environment.   

We also believe energy stocks and cyclical companies with operating leverage remain attractive  tactical  opportunities. With an emphasis on balance sheet health and limits on capital expenditures, we believe it is likely we will experience a prolonged period of mismatched supply and demand; potentially raising the outlook for energy companies’ top- and bottom-lines.  

Cryptocurrencies have had a volatile few months of trading and are in the headlines daily. While we believe in the future of blockchain, currently we do not believe crypto investments align with our overall goal to produce a more consistent rate of return. As such, we have not included them in our allocations and do not plan to do so in the foreseeable future.  

We will continue to provide ongoing updates on our views and investment positioning. Should you have specific questions about our strategy, please let us know and we will make sure to review details at our next meeting. And while we don’t recommend fixating on short term market fluctuations, if you would like to check specific investment performance across all your accounts, our  Buttonwood Portal  is available 24/7. Or you can contact us, and we will provide reports specific to your questions and financial life.    

Thank you for your continued trust and allowing us to serve as your Family CFO!   

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February 21, 2026
Tax season has a way of arriving faster than expected. And for 2026, there’s more worth paying attention to than usual—the IRS has updated key figures for tax year 2025, and enforcement around complex returns has intensified. But before you hand everything off to your CPA, a brief pause to review the right details can make the process smoother—and occasionally surfaces something worth acting on. The questions below are starting points for reflection and conversation, not tax guidance. 1. Did anything significant change last year? Life moves fast, and the tax code tries to keep up. A new job, a growing family, a home purchase, a business change, or even a large one-time expense can shift your tax situation in ways that deserve attention. This is also worth thinking about through the lens of your broader advisor team—changes that affect your investments, estate plan, or business interests often have tax consequences that only surface when everyone is looking at the full picture together. If it felt significant, it’s probably worth mentioning. 2. Have you collected all your income documents? Before anything else, make sure the full picture is on the table. W-2s, 1099s, K-1s, Social Security statements, and brokerage summaries should all be accounted for—and reviewed for accuracy, not just collected. A number that looks wrong is worth questioning before your return is filed. One timing note worth flagging: if you hold interests in partnerships, LLCs, private equity funds, or real estate partnerships, K-1s often don’t arrive until mid-March. If your CPA isn’t expecting them, there’s a real risk of filing prematurely without crucial income information 3. Is your paperwork actually ready to hand off? There’s a difference between having your documents and having them organized. A simple folder—digital or physical—sorted by category saves time, reduces back-and-forth with your CPA, and lowers the chance something gets missed in the shuffle. Five minutes of organizing now can prevent a week of delays later. This matters especially if you work with multiple advisors: your wealth manager, CPA, estate attorney, and business attorney each hold pieces of the puzzle. Information that stays siloed between professionals is one of the most common sources of unnecessary complications at filing time. 4. Are your charitable contributions documented? Good intentions don’t substitute for good records. Whether you gave cash, wrote checks, or donated property, make sure you have acknowledgment letters, receipts, or bank records to back it up. For larger contributions, the bar is higher: cash gifts over $250 require written acknowledgment from the charity, non-cash contributions over $500 require Form 8283, and those over $5,000 typically require a qualified appraisal. If you donated appreciated stock or gave through a donor-advised fund, your CPA will also need cost basis information and confirmation of fair market value on the donation date—details that may require coordination with your investment advisor. Timing matters too—gifts need to have been completed by December 31 to count for the prior tax year. 5. Do you have a clear picture of your investment activity? It’s easy to forget about trades made months ago, but we haven't. Sales, exchanges, dividend reinvestments, and distributions can all carry tax consequences. It’s also worth confirming whether any tax-loss harvesting was done on your behalf during the year—those transactions affect your overall gain and loss picture and your CPA should understand them in context. Similarly, if you exercised stock options, received vested restricted stock, or completed a Roth conversion, those activities need to be clearly communicated. Reviewing your year-end statements before you meet with your CPA helps ensure nothing catches anyone off guard. 6. Did your retirement contributions land where you intended? Confirm that what you planned to contribute actually went in—and in the right accounts. If you came up short on IRA contributions, you may still have time to make it right before the filing deadline. If you own a business or have self-employment income, it’s also worth verifying that any retirement plan contributions made through your business are properly coordinated with your personal return. It’s also worth asking whether your current savings rate still fits your retirement timeline. 7. Are your benefit and healthcare accounts squared away? HSAs, FSAs, and similar accounts have their own rules and reporting requirements that are easy to overlook. An HSA withdrawal used for a non-qualified expense, for instance, can trigger a penalty. Pull together your account statements and any related documents so your CPA has the full picture. If you own a business, it’s also worth confirming that health insurance premiums paid through your company are being handled correctly on both your business and personal returns—this is an area where coordination between your bookkeeper and CPA matters more than people expect. 8. What do you want to be more intentional about this year? Tax season is one of the few times most people take a genuine look at their finances. Use that momentum. Beyond filing, consider asking your CPA what your estimated tax payments should look like for 2026, whether any positions on this return carry higher audit risk, and what planning opportunities exist based on what they’re seeing in your return. The IRS has meaningfully intensified enforcement around high-income filers in recent years—particularly around partnership interests, digital asset transactions, and international holdings—so this isn’t a moment to treat compliance as a formality. Whether it’s adjusting your withholding, revisiting your giving strategy, or thinking through a major financial decision ahead, the earlier a conversation starts, the more options you typically have. A Note on 2025 Figures The IRS adjusted several key thresholds for tax year 2025. The standard deduction increased to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married filing jointly, with an additional enhanced deduction of up to $6,000 per qualifying individual age 65 or older ($12,000 for married couples where both spouses qualify). Notably, legislation temporarily increased the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions to up to $40,000 for tax years 2025 through 2029 for certain taxpayers who itemize. This expanded cap is subject to income‑based limitations and may phase down for higher‑income filers, meaning the benefit varies significantly based on overall income and deduction profile. As always, whether itemizing or taking the standard deduction makes sense depends on your specific situation and should be reviewed with your CPA. Estate and gift tax exemptions also saw inflationary adjustments for 2025, which may be relevant if wealth‑transfer planning was part of your year. How we can help? We work alongside your CPA—not in place of them. Our role is to help you stay organized, think through priorities, and make sure your financial decisions are working together toward a bigger goal. In our experience, the families who navigate tax season most efficiently are those who proactively connect the pieces across their professional team, rather than assuming the information flows automatically. If it would be helpful to talk through what’s on your plate before you sit down with your tax advisor, we’re glad to do that. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to provide solutions-not just plans. This information is provided for general educational purposes only and should not be considered tax advice. Please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation
Investmen
By Dale Raimann January 7, 2026
As we closed out 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continued its work to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. In our previous update , we shared how the inflation shock of 2022 reshaped our approach to fixed income and led to a more nimble, systematic positioning of bond assets. That proactive discipline remains a cornerstone of our investment process. As we wrapped up 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continues efforts to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. With the Fed reducing overnight lending rates for the third time, recent IPC discussions have turned to another critical focus area: cash management. Why Cash Strategy Matters Now With interest rates still elevated and market uncertainty persisting, many investors hold larger-than-usual cash positions. While cash provides stability, it also introduces opportunity cost if left idle. One of our IPC objectives is to ensure that excess cash works harder for you, without compromising liquidity for emergencies or near-term cash needs. Refining Our Cash Allocation Policy For our clients with larger cash needs (generally more than 5% or $50k of liquid assets in cash or money market funds), we are shifting to a proactive T-Bill management strategy, or other suitable investments based on goals and circumstances. For our clients holding less than $50k in cash or money market, we have retained money market for liquidity, but we have made a switch to the default money market fund we are using. Risk and Tax Aware Money Market Selection While yields are similar across money markets today, the underlying investments in each money market fund vary quite a bit. For example, Schwab Prime Money Market (ticker SWVXX) offers a slightly higher yield but invests in asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), introducing a modest credit risk. In contrast, Schwab Government Money Market (ticker SNVXX), invests primarily in U.S. Treasuries and government-backed securities, making it virtually risk-free and often state income tax-advantaged. With lower risk and only about 10/100’s of 1% yield difference, our IPC has proactively transitioned clients from SWVXX to SNVXX, to prioritize safety and tax efficiency over a marginal yield difference. Connecting Back to Our Broader Strategy These cash management refinements build on the fixed income strategy we recently outlined. By reducing exposure to inflation-sensitive bonds and implementing a more systematic approach, we are positioning portfolios to be more resilient across potentially weaker or higher-rate environments. Optimizing cash allocations and minimizing credit risk within money markets reinforces the same core principle—protecting downside risk while prudently capturing incremental return opportunities. Looking Ahead As we enter 2026, our investment approach remains focused and disciplined. We continue to prioritize liquidity for cash needs, thoughtful risk management, and systematic investment strategies designed to adapt to evolving market and economic conditions. This proactive framework supports long-term portfolio resilience while remaining aligned with your financial objectives. If you have questions about how these updates may impact your investments, cash management, or overall financial plan, we encourage you to connect with your financial advisor at Buttonwood. Our team is committed to delivering personalized wealth management and asset allocation strategies—regardless of market or economic uncertainty. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services.
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