Because we are emotional beings we tend to get caught up in the moment and not to see what looks obvious in hindsight. Squirrel ! Take the collapse of the tech bubble from 2000-2003 and mortgage meltdown in 2007-2009. Everyone loved everything, until they didn’t.
While our Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee (IPC) is very human, we try to separate the emotion from the logic. We have a process and a plan. We position assets proactively based upon our view of where we are in the economic / business cycle, and each of our clients unique needs. In these days of computer trading and algorithms it is very difficult wait until something happens before re-positioning investment assets as the markets are moving faster than ever.
So we take a more logical approach. As the risks to the economy, and thus the markets, increase we decrease investment risk. Over the last year or so, we have been slowly de-risking: Our focus being to participate but defend. Before 2020 started, we had reduced risk in our bond investments by trimming exposure to riskier, lower rated bonds. We had shifted our overweight in stock investments from growth stocks to value stocks; companies with cleaner balance sheets, stronger earnings and higher dividends. We removed direct exposure to Oil and Real Estate, which tend to underperform as the economy is slowing. (If you would like to dig deeper, Fidelity has a good overview about business cycles.) This week we took another step and reduced our exposure to foreign currency and foreign bonds. Like other recent sales, the proceeds from this sale will be added to money market.
We also take a technical view of the stock market, allowing us to make shorter term tactical decisions: When to invest cash and when to hold cash. In December we increased our allocation to cash and began to hold year end distributions, dividends and interest rather than reinvesting.
We had a plan, and each of these business cycle and tactical adjustments has had a positive impact by protecting assets as the stock markets around the world have declined.
An ever-changing dynamic… Up one day and down the next!
These days, markets seem to be moving on three data points: Coronavirus headlines, the oil and interest rate collapse, and what fiscal stimulus government and/or central banks will be implementing. There are likely more concerns yet to reach the headlines: Challenges to State and Local tax collections and thus the municipal bond markets, etc.
The average bear market removes about 36% from the S&P 500 and lasts for about seven months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. For perspective, the S&P 500 is down about 25% since February 20 th . It will be interesting to see if this will be an ‘average’ event.
To parrot our previous posts, we believe the consumer remains the key to continued growth for the US economy. Early in March we made the comment, “If the consumer reacts to coronavirus as if it is a short-term problem; and continues spending, we believe it’s possible for the stock markets and economy to rebound. If however, the consumer views coronavirus as a life changing event, this could lead to the next recession.”
As time continues to progress, it seems to us, the consumer is losing the ability to control whether or not to spend (and keep the economy going.) Entire countries are now closed for businesses, and every day more events, conferences and meetings are being canceled. On the surface this doesn’t look good, but there are positives. Interest rates are at record lows and providing an opportunity for debt/mortgage refinance, the low price of oil is reducing the cost of fuel (assuming we are going anywhere) and if the consumer can’t go out, delivery and online shopping are real alternatives.
While looking somewhat neurotic in the short term, the investment markets are fairly efficient at positioning for the future. The forecast of lower or no growth means sideways markets – where this started. The forecast for negative growth (recession) often means negative returns. We think it’s probable economies like China, Germany and Italy will officially register 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, triggering an official recession. It’s also possible we could see the same here in the US if enough of us stay home. If we do stay home, and as the seemingly 3-month coronavirus trend ends, we will likely have extra money in our bank accounts which could lead to a much shorter and milder recession than we saw in 2008-2009.
We will continue to implement our plan!
Beyond positioning assets for the economic cycle and tactical cash, when the markets are declining, before we implement a material strategy change, we generally wait until we have a period of time in the markets without a new low. With the recent volatility, it is likely we will continue in our current defensive position. This was the process we used in 2008-2009 and most recently in Q4 2018. Again, with algorithms and computer trading leading to big / fast moves, this strategy will likely not let us catch the exact bottom, but if the market falls further, it also means, as the saying goes, we didn’t ‘ catch a falling knife.’
These record setting days of volatility and uncertainty are part of the world we live in today. We have a logical plan we believe will be able to produce a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles: The focus for the Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee (IPC). And with a more consistent rate of return, you will have a smoother financial ride through life.
If you have specific questions about our strategy, please let us know and we will review specifics at our next meeting. And while we don’t recommend fixating on short term market fluctuations, if you would like to check specific performance of your investments, our Buttonwood Portal is available 24/7/365, or you can contact us and we can provide reports specific to your questions and life.
Enjoy friends, family and these early Spring days – even if events are cancelled and you are quarantined in your back yard!
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The Buttonwood Agreement: Where American Finance Took Root — and Why Our Name Exists The Buttonwood Agreement was a compact signed on May 17, 1792, by 24 stockbrokers and merchants beneath a buttonwood tree at 68 Wall Street in New York City. It established the rules of organized securities trading in America and laid the foundation for what would become the New York Stock Exchange. Buttonwood Financial Group takes its name directly from this founding moment; as a daily commitment to the integrity, transparency, and long-term thinking those original brokers put on paper. What was the Buttonwood Agreement, and why it still matters The Buttonwood Agreement came at a moment of crisis. The Panic of 1792, America's first speculative bubble and market collapse, had shattered public confidence in capital markets. Prominent financiers defaulted. Prices fell. Investors panicked. Alexander Hamilton worked to stabilize the system, but the lasting fix came from the professionals themselves. On May 17, 1792, 24 brokers gathered under a buttonwood (sycamore) tree outside 68 Wall Street and signed a two-sentence agreement: they would deal only with each other, charge a standard commission of one-quarter percent, and give preference to fellow signers in all negotiations. Simple. But the effect was transformative. By agreeing to hold a higher standard collectively, they rebuilt confidence in the market itself. The Buttonwood Agreement is widely regarded as the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange and of organized American finance. Why Buttonwood Financial Group carries this name Boutique wealth management firms are built on process and trust. When we named our firm Buttonwood Financial Group, the choice wasn't aesthetic; it was philosophical. Our name is a daily accountability measure; a reminder that the values those brokers signed onto in 1792 — integrity, structure, and responsibility — are exactly the values our clients deserve today. The families and individuals we serve aren't looking for surface answers and financial products. They're looking for an experienced team that has been tested across market conditions, that communicates honestly, and that approaches every client relationship from a fiduciary capacity in a long-term commitment. That's what an established boutique wealth management firm looks like in practice. What experience really means Experience in this industry isn't about credentials alone. It means you have been present with clients through market downturns and periods of uncertainty. You have worked alongside families through estate complexity, business transitions, and inheritance conversations. You have coordinated tax strategy, cash flows, and generational goals at the same time; because for most families, those things can't be separated. Our Team brings that depth to every engagement. Not because we're proud of our tenure, but because the people we serve deserve to work with real people whose judgment has been informed by real world complexity and a wide range of client circumstances. The values that haven't changed in 234 years The Buttonwood Agreement was forged in a crisis to restore confidence. That context mirrors what many clients feel when they first reach out to a firm like Buttonwood. The financial world is complex, opaque, and hard to navigate. Our commitment is to bring transparency, fiduciary responsibility, and honest communication to every relationship, the same values those brokers enshrined in 1792. Roots matter. They tell you where a firm stands when things get hard. On Buttonwood Agreement Day, we honor that founding moment, and recommit to carrying it forward. Connect with Buttonwood Financial Group If you're evaluating whether your current wealth management relationship reflects these values, we'd welcome the conversation. Our advisors work with individuals, families, and business owners on comprehensive, fiduciary-driven financial plans built around your long-term goals. Frequently Asked Questions What is the Buttonwood Agreement? The Buttonwood Agreement was a compact signed on May 17, 1792, by 24 stockbrokers and merchants in New York City. It established standardized rules for securities trading, dealing only among members, and charging a fixed commission. It is considered the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange. When is Buttonwood Agreement Day? Buttonwood Agreement Day is observed annually on May 17, marking the date the original agreement was signed in 1792 outside 68 Wall Street in New York City. Why is the Buttonwood Agreement significant in finance? The Buttonwood Agreement replaced chaotic, unregulated securities auctions with a system of structured, trust-based trading. It restored public confidence after the Panic of 1792 and established the foundational principles, integrity, accountability, and standardized commissions, that governed Wall Street for nearly two centuries. What does Buttonwood Financial Group do? Buttonwood Financial Group is an independent SEC Registered Investment Adviser. A boutique wealth management firm. The firm works with individuals, families, and business owners to provide both financial planning and investment management services. By serving as the primary financial advisor and administrator, Buttonwood is essentially acting as the family's "CFO" while the client remains as the family "CEO." Buttonwood strives to organize, formalize, implement, and monitor financial strategies consistent with clients' multi-generational goals and objectives. What makes a boutique wealth management firm different? Boutique wealth management firms typically offer more personalized service, deeper advisor relationships, and a fiduciary-first approach. Advisors and their support teams generally work with fewer clients and provide more integrated guidance and may reach a deeper level of strategy across investments, tax, business and estate planning, and financial planning. How do I choose an experienced financial advisor? We often see the following criteria: Look for advisors with a fiduciary obligation, verifiable credentials (CFP, CFA, or similar), a transparent fee structure, and experience working with clients whose situations are similar to your own. Confirm the advisor's registration status at adviserinfo.sec.gov. B uttonwood Financial Group is a registered investment adviser. The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Past results are not indicative of future performance. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please consult a qualified professional for advice specific to your situation.
What Should I Do With My Investments During Market Volatility? During periods of market volatility, the most important step you can take is to stay grounded in your long-term strategy. Ironically, reacting emotionally to short-term developments; whether they be tariff rulings, geopolitical escalation, or interest rate speculation, have historically introduced more risk than the volatility itself. A relationship with a fiduciary financial firm can help you maintain discipline and perspective when headlines make that difficult. Why Are Markets So Volatile in 2026? If the first few months of 2026 have felt turbulent, you are not imagining it. After a historically strong 2025 that included dozens of record closing highs in major U.S. indices, investors entered this year with elevated expectations. Several developments have since introduced meaningful uncertainty, and the markets don’t like uncertainty! In February, the Supreme Court ruled that broad tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded executive authority. The ruling reduced some trade policy ambiguity, but a new set of tariffs was promptly announced under a separate legal framework, leaving businesses and investors still navigating an evolving landscape. Separately, geopolitical conflict and rising energy prices have added pressure to an already cautious global outlook. Meanwhile, expectations around Federal Reserve policy continue to shift as new leadership takes the helm. Markets are currently pricing in potential rate adjustments later this year, but the path forward depends on a wide range of economic data that remains unsettled. Perspective matters: Market pullbacks are a normal and recurring feature of investing. Looking back over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year decline of about 14%. However, in 35 of 46 calendar years, the index ended in positive territory . Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the historical pattern is worth understanding. What Should You Consider Doing With Your Investments? Should I sell my investments during a downturn? Selling during periods of elevated volatility can feel like the safest decision, but it often locks in temporary losses and creates a new problem: deciding when to reinvest. Markets, forecasting the trajectory of the companies that make them up, have historically recovered from pullbacks, sometimes quickly and unexpectedly, and investors who moved to the sidelines have at times missed meaningful rebounds. That said, every situation is different, and decisions should be grounded in your unique circumstances. How do I know if my current plan will still work? Well-constructed financial strategy is built to account for periods of uncertainty. If your plan was designed around your specific objectives, your time horizon (your generation or multigenerational), and a realistic range of market scenarios, short-term volatility does not necessarily mean your plan needs to change. That said, life circumstances evolve, and market environments like we are experiencing in 2026 can be a useful prompt to review whether your financial strategy still aligns with where you are today. This is a conversation your team should be proactive about initiating. What does rebalancing look like in a volatile market? Volatility can cause your portfolio to drift away from its intended allocation. Rebalancing is the process of bringing it back into alignment. With the general assumption the economy grows ¾ of the time, market dislocations often create opportunities to rebalance at favorable levels. A rebalance might involve adjusting between asset classes, revisiting diversification across geographies and sectors, or reviewing fixed income positioning in light of changing interest rate expectations. Rebalancing is a disciplined process, not a reactive one, and it should be guided by your overall financial strategy rather than by today's headlines. Why Does an Independent Fiduciary Advisor Matter? A financial advisor electing to serve as a fiduciary is legally required to act in your best interest at all times; not their own (for compensation) or their employer’s. This is a higher standard than the suitability standard that governs many broker-dealer or hybrid relationships. Independence matters alongside the fiduciary standard. An independent firm can be broadly defined as not being owned by a bank, insurance company, or wirehouse. When a firm is independent, there is a lower probability you will receive biased recommendations influenced by proprietary product limitations, corporate sales quotas, and pressures to recommend one strategy over another for reasons that don’t serve you. In periods of volatility, this distinction becomes especially relevant. At a large firm, your guidance may come from a group of disconnected employees shaped by corporate priorities. At a smaller firm like Buttonwood Financial Group, our Advisors develop and implement strategies in conjunction with our Operations Team. Our output is a financial strategy that is not only customized; the execution of the plan is simplified as well. This happens at Buttonwood because our Team knows you and your family; and our relationship is the foundation of the advice. Buttonwood Financial Group has served Kansas City families, business owners, and high-net-worth individuals for over two decades as an independent fiduciary. Our service models: Financial Advisory, Family CFO, and Family Office, are structured around the complexity of each client’s situation, not around product tiers or asset minimums. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs and More) What is a fiduciary financial advisor? A fiduciary financial advisor is legally obligated to act in your best interest at all times. This differs from the suitability standard, which only requires that recommendations be appropriate, not necessarily optimal, for a client. How do I find a financial advisor? When evaluating a financial advisor, consider whether the advisor operates as an independent fiduciary, how long they have served the community, whether they offer comprehensive strategy that fits your needs, and whether their team is integrated and has experience with your level of financial complexity. You can verify an advisor’s registration and disclosures through the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure database. Should I change my financial strategy because of tariffs? In most cases, a well-constructed financial strategy should not require significant changes in response to any single policy shift, including tariff adjustments. Trade policy is one of many variables that affect markets, and reacting to individual policy headlines can introduce more risk than it mitigates. A fiduciary advisor can help you stress-test your strategy against multiple economic scenarios rather than reacting to any single event. What is unique about an independent fiduciary financial advisor? Independent financial advisors are not owned by or affiliated with large banks, insurance companies, or wirehouses. This independence, in conjunction with a fiduciary standard, helps ensure your advisor recommends products and strategies that serve your best interest. Independent firms also tend to provide more personalized services. What are Family CFO services? Family CFO services provide comprehensive financial strategy and oversight for households and families who need more than Investment management but do not need or want to pay for the staff of their own Family Office. Core Family CFO services include cash flow management, tax coordination, insurance and estate planning coordination and oversight, and support around life's ongoing financial decisions. Our Family CFO Team functions in a similar capacity to a dedicated Chief Financial Officer for your personal financial life. What does a Family Office do? A Family Office provides holistic wealth management for individuals and families with financial complexity beyond our Core Family CFO services. This may include developing and managing advanced investment allocation, tax, legacy planning, philanthropic advisory services, risk management, multigenerational financial literacy, and concierge services. Boutique firms, like Buttonwood Financial Group, offer Family Office services with a dedicated Our Team: Your Family relationship. Let’s Have a Real Conversation If the world seems to be whirling by or you are questioning whether your financial plan is built for what’s ahead, we welcome a conversation: A straightforward discussion about where you are and where you want to go. Important Disclosure This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and reflects general market views as of the date published. It is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Market conditions and investment strategies are subject to change. Please consult with your Buttonwood Financial Group advisor regarding your individual circumstances before making any investment decisions.
Oil vs. Gold: What Today’s Market Signals May Mean for Investors
Today is the last day of Women's History Month. And while one month is never enough to capture what women contribute — to finance, to business, to the communities they shape — it is a moment worth honoring before we let it go. At Buttonwood Financial Group, this March has felt particularly meaningful. Not because we needed a designated month to recognize the women on our team, but because it gave us the chance to say out loud what we already know to be true every day: our women make us who we are. Buttonwood is a 15-person boutique wealth management firm based in Midtown Kansas City. Six of those 15 people are women — and they aren't clustered in one place. They lead across every corner of this firm. Our COO manages the operational engine of the business. Our VP of Marketing shapes how Buttonwood communicates with the world. Our Director of Operations keeps everything running with precision. Female representation on our Advisor team brings deep expertise directly to clients' financial futures and support from our accounting team. And our Client Services Specialist is often the first voice clients hear — and one of the most important. In an industry where women have historically been underrepresented, that kind of presence — spanning C-suite, operations, marketing, wealth management, accounting, and client services — doesn't happen by accident. This Is What Intentional Looks Like Wealth management has long been a male-dominated field. Women make up a fraction of financial advisors and senior leaders across the industry. We knew from the beginning that building the team we wanted meant being thoughtful — not waiting for diversity to happen organically, but actively creating an environment where talented women want to stay and grow. We're not perfect, and we're not done. But we're proud of where we are. Beyond Wealth: Women, Wealth & Influence Last year, we launched something we'd been excited about for a long time: Beyond Wealth: Women, Wealth & Influence— a community where women can explore the real intersections of life and money. The response has been remarkable. Women are hungry for this kind of space. One that doesn't talk down to them or assume they need a simplified version of finance — but instead treats them as the intelligent, capable decision-makers they are. We meet, we talk, we learn from each other, and we build the kind of financial confidence that changes lives. Why It Matters in Wealth Management Specifically Women control a growing share of wealth in this country. They often outlive their spouses. They navigate career interruptions. They make major financial decisions every day — and they deserve advisors and firms that truly reflect their experience and understand their full picture. When clients walk through our doors in Midtown Kansas City, they don't just get personalized financial planning. They get a team built to see the whole picture — and that includes the perspective that women bring. Rooted in Kansas City Our commitment to this community runs deep. Through Buttonwood Art Space, our nonprofit arm, we've returned over $1 million to local artists and nonprofits — investing in the creative and cultural fabric of the city we're proud to call home. For us, being a good firm and being a good neighbor have always gone hand in hand. A Word of Gratitude To the women of Buttonwood Financial Group: thank you. The leadership, the care, the rigor, the relationship-building you bring every single day — that's why this firm is as good as it is. And to our clients, partners, and Kansas City community: we're more than 20 years into building something worth celebrating. We're just getting started. Interested in joining Beyond Wealth: Women, Wealth & Influence? Email: info@ButtonwoodFG.com Buttonwood Financial Group is a boutique wealth management firm in Midtown Kansas City with over 20 years of experience in personalized financial planning. Through its nonprofit arm, Buttonwood Art Space, the firm has contributed over $1 million to local artists and nonprofits.
Geopolitics and economic impacts evolve; and thus, we evolve our investment allocations. Our March rebalance consisted of a series of targeted adjustments designed to keep portfolios aligned with our long-term objectives of producing a more consistent rate of return, while adapting to a changing investment environment. The takeaway is straightforward: we remain firmly invested in growth, but we’re being more intentional about how we are taking risk. The change during this rebalance is a refinement of positioning, not a retreat from our conviction. Staying Invested, With Better Balance We continue to maintain a modest equity overweight, as we believe stocks will still outperform bonds. Our logic reflects an economic macro backdrop that remains supportive. Economic growth has been resilient; earnings have held up, and inflation pressures continue to trend in the right direction. These conditions favor stocks and growth rather than stepping aside. At the same time, the market has begun to reward selectivity over concentration. In response, we trimmed positions that had grown disproportionately large, took profits on recent winners, and reduced some of our most concentrated factor tilts. The goal is not to reduce upside participation, but to pursue it with better diversification and durability. Tempering Regional Bets We made modest regional adjustments to improve balance without changing our core views: U.S. equities: We remain constructive on U.S. earnings power, but trimmed our overweight to the US, after a strong run to reduce concentration risk. Emerging markets: After meaningful gains, particularly tied to AI and semiconductor supply chain, we again took some profits while maintaining meaningful exposure. International developed markets: We reduced, but did not eliminate, our underweight, acknowledging that in a broadening market, extreme regional bets can become less efficient. The result is a more balanced global equity mix, designed to be resilient across a wider range of outcomes. Broadening Our AI Exposure The AI trade has been and continues to remain one of the most powerful long-term themes shaping the global economy. However, the opportunity is not evenly distributed. While many companies are experimenting with AI, only a small subset are successfully deploying it at scale in ways that meaningfully improve productivity and competitiveness. We believe we have strengthened our AI positioning through active investment strategies that seek to identify not only core technology builders, but also early adopters across industries. We have targeted companies that are using AI to create durable advantages rather than simply following the trend: Lessons learned during the .com era. As risks increase and the market becomes more selective, we believe this selective approach matters more than ever. Adding to Defense, with a Global Lens We also added to our exposure to defense stocks, reflecting what we believe is a multiyear, policy driven investment cycle tied to modernization and security priorities. Importantly, we shifted from a U.S. centric approach toward a more diversified global strategy, aiming to capture where defense spending is expanding most clearly. Defense plays a dual role in investment portfolios today: Not only is it a structural growth opportunity; we are also viewing it as a diversifying equity exposure with drivers distinct from traditional economic cycles. An economic recession doesn’t necessarily impact the need for a nation to defend itself. Strengthening Bonds as a Stabilizer Within fixed income, our focus during this rebalance was to improve resilience. Credit spreads are historically tight, meaning investors are being paid very little for taking on credit risk. In these conditions, credit (bonds) can behave more like equity (stocks) during market stress. As such, we reduced credit heavy exposures and added higher quality, longer duration government bonds. The intent is to make our bond allocation a more reliable shock absorber during periods of volatility. At the same time, we would like to preserve the flexibility to add risk later if credit sells off and valuations improve. The Bottom Line Our March 2026 rebalance kept portfolios in our ‘barbell’ structure. Assets are both positioned for growth, which has served us very well, while we continue to increase our defensive positioning. We believe defense has been increased by improving diversification, reducing concentration, and strengthening downside protection. In short, following our March rebalance, assets are positioned to take advantage of opportunities to participate in an overall economically constructive outlook, but we believe are now better positioned to weather uncertainty with greater resilience. If you have questions about how these changes apply specifically to your cash flows or financial objectives, we welcome the conversation. Thank you for your continued trust and partnership. Important Disclosure This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and reflects general market views as of the date published. It is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Market conditions and investment strategies are subject to change. Please consult with your Buttonwood Financial Group advisor regarding your individual circumstances before making any investment decisions.
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