Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee Update – March 13

Because we are emotional beings we tend to get caught up in the moment and not to see what looks obvious in hindsight. Squirrel ! Take the collapse of the tech bubble from 2000-2003 and mortgage meltdown in 2007-2009. Everyone loved everything, until they didn’t.

While our Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee (IPC) is very human, we try to separate the emotion from the logic. We have a process and a plan. We position assets proactively based upon our view of where we are in the economic / business cycle, and each of our clients unique needs. In these days of computer trading and algorithms it is very difficult wait until something happens before re-positioning investment assets as the markets are moving faster than ever.

So we take a more logical approach. As the risks to the economy, and thus the markets, increase we decrease investment risk. Over the last year or so, we have been slowly de-risking: Our focus being to participate but defend. Before 2020 started, we had reduced risk in our bond investments by trimming exposure to riskier, lower rated bonds. We had shifted our overweight in stock investments from growth stocks to value stocks; companies with cleaner balance sheets, stronger earnings and higher dividends. We removed direct exposure to Oil and Real Estate, which tend to underperform as the economy is slowing. (If you would like to dig deeper, Fidelity has a good overview about business cycles.) This week we took another step and reduced our exposure to foreign currency and foreign bonds. Like other recent sales, the proceeds from this sale will be added to money market.

We also take a technical view of the stock market, allowing us to make shorter term tactical decisions: When to invest cash and when to hold cash. In December we increased our allocation to cash and began to hold year end distributions, dividends and interest rather than reinvesting.

We had a plan, and each of these business cycle and tactical adjustments has had a positive impact by protecting assets as the stock markets around the world have declined.

An ever-changing dynamic… Up one day and down the next!

These days, markets seem to be moving on three data points: Coronavirus headlines, the oil and interest rate collapse, and what fiscal stimulus government and/or central banks will be implementing. There are likely more concerns yet to reach the headlines: Challenges to State and Local tax collections and thus the municipal bond markets, etc.

The average bear market removes about 36% from the S&P 500 and lasts for about seven months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. For perspective, the S&P 500 is down about 25% since February 20 th . It will be interesting to see if this will be an ‘average’ event.

To parrot our previous posts, we believe the consumer remains the key to continued growth for the US economy. Early in March we made the comment, “If the consumer reacts to coronavirus as if it is a short-term problem; and continues spending, we believe it’s possible for the stock markets and economy to rebound. If however, the consumer views coronavirus as a life changing event, this could lead to the next recession.”

As time continues to progress, it seems to us, the consumer is losing the ability to control whether or not to spend (and keep the economy going.) Entire countries are now closed for businesses, and every day more events, conferences and meetings are being canceled. On the surface this doesn’t look good, but there are positives. Interest rates are at record lows and providing an opportunity for debt/mortgage refinance, the low price of oil is reducing the cost of fuel (assuming we are going anywhere) and if the consumer can’t go out, delivery and online shopping are real alternatives.

While looking somewhat neurotic in the short term, the investment markets are fairly efficient at positioning for the future. The forecast of lower or no growth means sideways markets – where this started. The forecast for negative growth (recession) often means negative returns. We think it’s probable economies like China, Germany and Italy will officially register 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, triggering an official recession. It’s also possible we could see the same here in the US if enough of us stay home. If we do stay home, and as the seemingly 3-month coronavirus trend ends, we will likely have extra money in our bank accounts which could lead to a much shorter and milder recession than we saw in 2008-2009.

We will continue to implement our plan!

Beyond positioning assets for the economic cycle and tactical cash, when the markets are declining, before we implement a material strategy change, we generally wait until we have a period of time in the markets without a new low. With the recent volatility, it is likely we will continue in our current defensive position. This was the process we used in 2008-2009 and most recently in Q4 2018. Again, with algorithms and computer trading leading to big / fast moves, this strategy will likely not let us catch the exact bottom, but if the market falls further, it also means, as the saying goes, we didn’t ‘ catch a falling knife.’

These record setting days of volatility and uncertainty are part of the world we live in today. We have a logical plan we believe will be able to produce a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles: The focus for the Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee (IPC). And with a more consistent rate of return, you will have a smoother financial ride through life.

If you have specific questions about our strategy, please let us know and we will review specifics at our next meeting. And while we don’t recommend fixating on short term market fluctuations, if you would like to check specific performance of your investments, our Buttonwood Portal is available 24/7/365, or you can contact us and we can provide reports specific to your questions and life.

Enjoy friends, family and these early Spring days – even if events are cancelled and you are quarantined in your back yard!

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February 21, 2026
Tax season has a way of arriving faster than expected. And for 2026, there’s more worth paying attention to than usual—the IRS has updated key figures for tax year 2025, and enforcement around complex returns has intensified. But before you hand everything off to your CPA, a brief pause to review the right details can make the process smoother—and occasionally surfaces something worth acting on. The questions below are starting points for reflection and conversation, not tax guidance. 1. Did anything significant change last year? Life moves fast, and the tax code tries to keep up. A new job, a growing family, a home purchase, a business change, or even a large one-time expense can shift your tax situation in ways that deserve attention. This is also worth thinking about through the lens of your broader advisor team—changes that affect your investments, estate plan, or business interests often have tax consequences that only surface when everyone is looking at the full picture together. If it felt significant, it’s probably worth mentioning. 2. Have you collected all your income documents? Before anything else, make sure the full picture is on the table. W-2s, 1099s, K-1s, Social Security statements, and brokerage summaries should all be accounted for—and reviewed for accuracy, not just collected. A number that looks wrong is worth questioning before your return is filed. One timing note worth flagging: if you hold interests in partnerships, LLCs, private equity funds, or real estate partnerships, K-1s often don’t arrive until mid-March. If your CPA isn’t expecting them, there’s a real risk of filing prematurely without crucial income information 3. Is your paperwork actually ready to hand off? There’s a difference between having your documents and having them organized. A simple folder—digital or physical—sorted by category saves time, reduces back-and-forth with your CPA, and lowers the chance something gets missed in the shuffle. Five minutes of organizing now can prevent a week of delays later. This matters especially if you work with multiple advisors: your wealth manager, CPA, estate attorney, and business attorney each hold pieces of the puzzle. Information that stays siloed between professionals is one of the most common sources of unnecessary complications at filing time. 4. Are your charitable contributions documented? Good intentions don’t substitute for good records. Whether you gave cash, wrote checks, or donated property, make sure you have acknowledgment letters, receipts, or bank records to back it up. For larger contributions, the bar is higher: cash gifts over $250 require written acknowledgment from the charity, non-cash contributions over $500 require Form 8283, and those over $5,000 typically require a qualified appraisal. If you donated appreciated stock or gave through a donor-advised fund, your CPA will also need cost basis information and confirmation of fair market value on the donation date—details that may require coordination with your investment advisor. Timing matters too—gifts need to have been completed by December 31 to count for the prior tax year. 5. Do you have a clear picture of your investment activity? It’s easy to forget about trades made months ago, but we haven't. Sales, exchanges, dividend reinvestments, and distributions can all carry tax consequences. It’s also worth confirming whether any tax-loss harvesting was done on your behalf during the year—those transactions affect your overall gain and loss picture and your CPA should understand them in context. Similarly, if you exercised stock options, received vested restricted stock, or completed a Roth conversion, those activities need to be clearly communicated. Reviewing your year-end statements before you meet with your CPA helps ensure nothing catches anyone off guard. 6. Did your retirement contributions land where you intended? Confirm that what you planned to contribute actually went in—and in the right accounts. If you came up short on IRA contributions, you may still have time to make it right before the filing deadline. If you own a business or have self-employment income, it’s also worth verifying that any retirement plan contributions made through your business are properly coordinated with your personal return. It’s also worth asking whether your current savings rate still fits your retirement timeline. 7. Are your benefit and healthcare accounts squared away? HSAs, FSAs, and similar accounts have their own rules and reporting requirements that are easy to overlook. An HSA withdrawal used for a non-qualified expense, for instance, can trigger a penalty. Pull together your account statements and any related documents so your CPA has the full picture. If you own a business, it’s also worth confirming that health insurance premiums paid through your company are being handled correctly on both your business and personal returns—this is an area where coordination between your bookkeeper and CPA matters more than people expect. 8. What do you want to be more intentional about this year? Tax season is one of the few times most people take a genuine look at their finances. Use that momentum. Beyond filing, consider asking your CPA what your estimated tax payments should look like for 2026, whether any positions on this return carry higher audit risk, and what planning opportunities exist based on what they’re seeing in your return. The IRS has meaningfully intensified enforcement around high-income filers in recent years—particularly around partnership interests, digital asset transactions, and international holdings—so this isn’t a moment to treat compliance as a formality. Whether it’s adjusting your withholding, revisiting your giving strategy, or thinking through a major financial decision ahead, the earlier a conversation starts, the more options you typically have. A Note on 2025 Figures The IRS adjusted several key thresholds for tax year 2025. The standard deduction increased to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married filing jointly, with an additional enhanced deduction of up to $6,000 per qualifying individual age 65 or older ($12,000 for married couples where both spouses qualify). Notably, legislation temporarily increased the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions to up to $40,000 for tax years 2025 through 2029 for certain taxpayers who itemize. This expanded cap is subject to income‑based limitations and may phase down for higher‑income filers, meaning the benefit varies significantly based on overall income and deduction profile. As always, whether itemizing or taking the standard deduction makes sense depends on your specific situation and should be reviewed with your CPA. Estate and gift tax exemptions also saw inflationary adjustments for 2025, which may be relevant if wealth‑transfer planning was part of your year. How we can help? We work alongside your CPA—not in place of them. Our role is to help you stay organized, think through priorities, and make sure your financial decisions are working together toward a bigger goal. In our experience, the families who navigate tax season most efficiently are those who proactively connect the pieces across their professional team, rather than assuming the information flows automatically. If it would be helpful to talk through what’s on your plate before you sit down with your tax advisor, we’re glad to do that. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to provide solutions-not just plans. This information is provided for general educational purposes only and should not be considered tax advice. Please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation
Investmen
By Dale Raimann January 7, 2026
As we closed out 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continued its work to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. In our previous update , we shared how the inflation shock of 2022 reshaped our approach to fixed income and led to a more nimble, systematic positioning of bond assets. That proactive discipline remains a cornerstone of our investment process. As we wrapped up 2025, our Investment Policy Committee (IPC) continues efforts to refine strategies that balance risk, liquidity, and long-term growth. With the Fed reducing overnight lending rates for the third time, recent IPC discussions have turned to another critical focus area: cash management. Why Cash Strategy Matters Now With interest rates still elevated and market uncertainty persisting, many investors hold larger-than-usual cash positions. While cash provides stability, it also introduces opportunity cost if left idle. One of our IPC objectives is to ensure that excess cash works harder for you, without compromising liquidity for emergencies or near-term cash needs. Refining Our Cash Allocation Policy For our clients with larger cash needs (generally more than 5% or $50k of liquid assets in cash or money market funds), we are shifting to a proactive T-Bill management strategy, or other suitable investments based on goals and circumstances. For our clients holding less than $50k in cash or money market, we have retained money market for liquidity, but we have made a switch to the default money market fund we are using. Risk and Tax Aware Money Market Selection While yields are similar across money markets today, the underlying investments in each money market fund vary quite a bit. For example, Schwab Prime Money Market (ticker SWVXX) offers a slightly higher yield but invests in asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), introducing a modest credit risk. In contrast, Schwab Government Money Market (ticker SNVXX), invests primarily in U.S. Treasuries and government-backed securities, making it virtually risk-free and often state income tax-advantaged. With lower risk and only about 10/100’s of 1% yield difference, our IPC has proactively transitioned clients from SWVXX to SNVXX, to prioritize safety and tax efficiency over a marginal yield difference. Connecting Back to Our Broader Strategy These cash management refinements build on the fixed income strategy we recently outlined. By reducing exposure to inflation-sensitive bonds and implementing a more systematic approach, we are positioning portfolios to be more resilient across potentially weaker or higher-rate environments. Optimizing cash allocations and minimizing credit risk within money markets reinforces the same core principle—protecting downside risk while prudently capturing incremental return opportunities. Looking Ahead As we enter 2026, our investment approach remains focused and disciplined. We continue to prioritize liquidity for cash needs, thoughtful risk management, and systematic investment strategies designed to adapt to evolving market and economic conditions. This proactive framework supports long-term portfolio resilience while remaining aligned with your financial objectives. If you have questions about how these updates may impact your investments, cash management, or overall financial plan, we encourage you to connect with your financial advisor at Buttonwood. Our team is committed to delivering personalized wealth management and asset allocation strategies—regardless of market or economic uncertainty. Thank you for your continued trust and for allowing us to coordinate your asset management as part of our Family CFO services.
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