It will be a challenge to accurately measure the rate of change through which we have just lived. As COVID19 began its sweep around the globe, every day saw the implementation of change on an hourly basis – something the world population has never seen before. To add to the disruption, billions of news releases and COVID19 statistics poured conflicting information into the world. It has been a whirlwind to say the least.

What about the markets?

In times of horrible economic news but rebounding stock markets, it’s important to understand stock markets are forward-looking. When change happens, the markets adjust to reflect that change – the best they can. From all-time highs in February, to the lows at the end of March; the major stock indices fell about 40%. The reality moved from an opportunistic view of 2020, to one of unknowns, lockdowns and an ever-increasing death rate.

However, as the onslaught of information began to show specific trends, more clarity appeared and the markets began to digest, and adjust to, what the world might look like 6, 9 months or a year from now. We know economic data will show a huge decline in activity – on scale with the Great Depression. We also know there are many bright minds working on multiple iterations of vaccines, and that an effective vaccine will likely return our world to some type of a pre-COVID19 state. As such the markets, looking forward, have staged a strong rebound since those March lows.

Each quarter earnings season arrives and provides us a look at the financial health of businesses. With the impact of COVID19, earnings season this quarter wasn’t so much about the dollar amount of earnings, but about the trends: Which companies (sectors) are successfully navigating the trend changes and which are not. The winners and losers have been easy to spot. If you are a tech company providing vital tools for “work from home”, you are winning. If you are an airline or restaurant, life isn’t good. Every business falls somewhere on this scale. As expected, traders have been moving assets into winners and selling the losers: Tech stocks are near all-time highs. Following popular trends can create risks. Of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, just 3 (Tech, Communications and Healthcare) now make up more than 50% of the S&P 500 market cap.

Where do we go from here?

The interpretation of what all this will eventually look like for the US economy has been extrapolated into a series of alphabet soup. Early on we saw the “V” (quick down and back up as we reopen), then came the “W” (hope for a successful reopening but fail), the “Y”, “L”, the “Nike Swoosh” and more. The “U” recovery (quick down and slower recovery) seems to be where the majority has now set the ‘base case.’ That said, when you combine the Wall Street sentiment readings, the consensus shows more confusion than conviction.

We thought Columbia Threadneedle provided a good “U” bottom graphic: “Controlling the rate of infection will be the chief determinant of economic recovery. We currently expect a “u-shaped” recovery, meaning that it will take 10 calendar quarters for the U.S. to get back to prior levels of activity. Until a vaccine is widely available, possibly in fall 2021, we may see one or more localized rebounds of COVID-19 infections. But each subsequent peak should be more muted due to increased immunity, better testing capacity, more experience with social distancing and new therapies.”

We continue to implement o ur 2020 theme: Participate but defend!

Based upon technical trends, starting last December, rather than investing deposits, dividends and interest, we begin to hold cash. During the week of March 23, we fully invested available cash for accounts with a longer-term focus. In April and May, for taxable accounts, we have been proactive with tax loss harvesting. For all investment accounts, we have been active with cash management; reviewing and repositioning assets for the highest yield.

With the focus of the Buttonwood Investment Policy Committee being to produce a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles, we remain invested but defensively positioned in both stock and bond markets. We continue to have exposure to lower volatility stocks and to higher quality bonds. We have not yet added back direct exposure to oil, real estate, or junk bonds as we believe it will likely take some time for strength to return to the economies of the world. We will continue to watch the economic / business cycle and have a multi-step strategy designed to increase risk and index exposure as we emerge from our current COVID19 recession. If we aren’t seeing signs of emergence, we will continue to remain more defensively positioned.

We are in no rush to take big risks – with a more consistent rate of return, we will all have a smoother financial ride through life. This is the process we consistently used in 2008-2009 and most recently in Q4 2018. With algorithms and computer trading leading to big / fast moves, this strategy will likely not let us catch the exact bottom, however we are very likely to catch the longer-term trends.

If you have specific questions about our strategy, please let us know and we will review details at our next meeting. And while we don’t recommend fixating on short term market fluctuations, if you would like to check specific performance of your investments, our Buttonwood Portal is available 24/7/365, or you can contact us and we can provide reports specific to your questions and financial life.

Thank you for your trust and allowing us to serve as your Family CFO. Stay safe as we enjoy interacting once again with friends and family!

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The Buttonwood Agreement: Where American Finance Took Root — and Why Our Name Exists The Buttonwood Agreement was a compact signed on May 17, 1792, by 24 stockbrokers and merchants beneath a buttonwood tree at 68 Wall Street in New York City. It established the rules of organized securities trading in America and laid the foundation for what would become the New York Stock Exchange. Buttonwood Financial Group takes its name directly from this founding moment; as a daily commitment to the integrity, transparency, and long-term thinking those original brokers put on paper. What was the Buttonwood Agreement, and why it still matters The Buttonwood Agreement came at a moment of crisis. The Panic of 1792, America's first speculative bubble and market collapse, had shattered public confidence in capital markets. Prominent financiers defaulted. Prices fell. Investors panicked. Alexander Hamilton worked to stabilize the system, but the lasting fix came from the professionals themselves. On May 17, 1792, 24 brokers gathered under a buttonwood (sycamore) tree outside 68 Wall Street and signed a two-sentence agreement: they would deal only with each other, charge a standard commission of one-quarter percent, and give preference to fellow signers in all negotiations. Simple. But the effect was transformative. By agreeing to hold a higher standard collectively, they rebuilt confidence in the market itself. The Buttonwood Agreement is widely regarded as the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange and of organized American finance. Why Buttonwood Financial Group carries this name Boutique wealth management firms are built on process and trust. When we named our firm Buttonwood Financial Group, the choice wasn't aesthetic; it was philosophical. Our name is a daily accountability measure; a reminder that the values those brokers signed onto in 1792 — integrity, structure, and responsibility — are exactly the values our clients deserve today. The families and individuals we serve aren't looking for surface answers and financial products. They're looking for an experienced team that has been tested across market conditions, that communicates honestly, and that approaches every client relationship from a fiduciary capacity in a long-term commitment. That's what an established boutique wealth management firm looks like in practice. What experience really means Experience in this industry isn't about credentials alone. It means you have been present with clients through market downturns and periods of uncertainty. You have worked alongside families through estate complexity, business transitions, and inheritance conversations. You have coordinated tax strategy, cash flows, and generational goals at the same time; because for most families, those things can't be separated. Our Team brings that depth to every engagement. Not because we're proud of our tenure, but because the people we serve deserve to work with real people whose judgment has been informed by real world complexity and a wide range of client circumstances. The values that haven't changed in 234 years The Buttonwood Agreement was forged in a crisis to restore confidence. That context mirrors what many clients feel when they first reach out to a firm like Buttonwood. The financial world is complex, opaque, and hard to navigate. Our commitment is to bring transparency, fiduciary responsibility, and honest communication to every relationship, the same values those brokers enshrined in 1792. Roots matter. They tell you where a firm stands when things get hard. On Buttonwood Agreement Day, we honor that founding moment, and recommit to carrying it forward. Connect with Buttonwood Financial Group If you're evaluating whether your current wealth management relationship reflects these values, we'd welcome the conversation. Our advisors work with individuals, families, and business owners on comprehensive, fiduciary-driven financial plans built around your long-term goals. Frequently Asked Questions What is the Buttonwood Agreement? The Buttonwood Agreement was a compact signed on May 17, 1792, by 24 stockbrokers and merchants in New York City. It established standardized rules for securities trading, dealing only among members, and charging a fixed commission. It is considered the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange. When is Buttonwood Agreement Day? Buttonwood Agreement Day is observed annually on May 17, marking the date the original agreement was signed in 1792 outside 68 Wall Street in New York City. Why is the Buttonwood Agreement significant in finance? The Buttonwood Agreement replaced chaotic, unregulated securities auctions with a system of structured, trust-based trading. It restored public confidence after the Panic of 1792 and established the foundational principles, integrity, accountability, and standardized commissions, that governed Wall Street for nearly two centuries. What does Buttonwood Financial Group do? Buttonwood Financial Group is an independent SEC Registered Investment Adviser. A boutique wealth management firm. The firm works with individuals, families, and business owners to provide both financial planning and investment management services. By serving as the primary financial advisor and administrator, Buttonwood is essentially acting as the family's "CFO" while the client remains as the family "CEO." Buttonwood strives to organize, formalize, implement, and monitor financial strategies consistent with clients' multi-generational goals and objectives. What makes a boutique wealth management firm different? Boutique wealth management firms typically offer more personalized service, deeper advisor relationships, and a fiduciary-first approach. Advisors and their support teams generally work with fewer clients and provide more integrated guidance and may reach a deeper level of strategy across investments, tax, business and estate planning, and financial planning. How do I choose an experienced financial advisor? We often see the following criteria: Look for advisors with a fiduciary obligation, verifiable credentials (CFP, CFA, or similar), a transparent fee structure, and experience working with clients whose situations are similar to your own. Confirm the advisor's registration status at adviserinfo.sec.gov. B uttonwood Financial Group is a registered investment adviser. The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Past results are not indicative of future performance. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please consult a qualified professional for advice specific to your situation.

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