2020, to say the least, was a tumultuous year on many fronts. With the election cycle behind us, a new administration in place and a light at the end of the Covid tunnel, our base case assumes 2021 will be prone to the fits and starts of the early cycle stages, yet overall be a smoother year in terms of investment markets and life in general.

2021 Strategy: A Tactical Pivot

Over the years we have opined our preference to hold more actively managed funds in later-stage economic cycles and more passive funds in early-stage economic cycles. While we don’t yet have the data to know if we are officially out of recession, we believe 2020 was the turning point from late-stage cycle to early-stage and as such we are beginning the transition from mostly active to more passive funds and ETFs.

We plan to maintain exposure to active managers in asset classes where we believe those managers can add value over their passively managed peers: Emerging markets, small cap and alternative markets. We are also taking steps to reduce exposure to low return assets such as cash and short term bonds, and increase exposure to tactical positions that align with early market cycle return expectations.

Throughout Buttonwood’s history as an independent firm, we have been fortunate to have ongoing dialog about investment strategy with some of the best minds in our industry; JP Morgan, Vanguard, BlackRock and many others. We believe the breadth of knowledge we have derived from these relationships has helped us successfully develop and deliver our strategy.

In an ever-evolving and more complex investment universe, we will continue to leverage our partnerships with the intent to increase our efficiency and nimbleness as an Investment Policy Committee. We plan to continue to utilize powerful technology platforms to analyze investments, evaluate risk exposures and manage allocations.

And as we move forward into what we believe is the start of a new economic cycle, we plan to continue our shift toward additional targeted risk exposures, through both sector and factor specific strategies, we believe we can better take advantage of changing market conditions and ultimately continue to produce the coveted outcome of a more consistent rate of return over full economic cycles.

Today, our base case is built around an equally divided, gridlocked government providing opportunity for continued stock market growth. We believe this growth is likely to be propelled by a dovish Fed, additional stimulus as well as a delay in tax increases and/or significant policy changes until Covid is materially addressed.

As the vaccine rollout continues and restrictions on public events and travel lessen in 2021, we believe there is an opportunistic tailwind for economic expansion. We also believe Environmental Social & Governance (ESG) investing will likely come into favor under the current administration and we will plan to add exposure in this area.

Risks abound

We consider both sides of many arguments when determining our base case for investment allocation. While our base remains optimistic, as always, there are a number of potential challenges our economy and the markets must overcome. Covid cases show no sign of slowing and many comments focused around market ‘bubbles’ exist. It is true that valuations are high and if future earnings don’t live up to current expectations, there is a real possibility for a downturn in the markets.

Unemployment remains an issue and the likelihood of ‘mom & pop’ shops/restaurants returning to a prospering condition are unknown. Additional stimulus could also have longer-term unforeseen effects on the economy as tax rates will almost assuredly increase to help reduce the national debt.

You can expect ongoing reports of our positioning and should you have specific questions about our strategy, please let us know and we will make sure to review details at our next meeting. And while we don’t recommend fixating on short term market fluctuations, if you would like to check specific performance of your investments across all your accounts, our Buttonwood Portal is available 24/7. Or you can contact us and we can provide reports specific to your questions and financial life.

Thank you for your continued trust and allowing us to serve as your Family CFO!

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The Buttonwood Agreement: Where American Finance Took Root — and Why Our Name Exists The Buttonwood Agreement was a compact signed on May 17, 1792, by 24 stockbrokers and merchants beneath a buttonwood tree at 68 Wall Street in New York City. It established the rules of organized securities trading in America and laid the foundation for what would become the New York Stock Exchange. Buttonwood Financial Group takes its name directly from this founding moment; as a daily commitment to the integrity, transparency, and long-term thinking those original brokers put on paper. What was the Buttonwood Agreement, and why it still matters The Buttonwood Agreement came at a moment of crisis. The Panic of 1792, America's first speculative bubble and market collapse, had shattered public confidence in capital markets. Prominent financiers defaulted. Prices fell. Investors panicked. Alexander Hamilton worked to stabilize the system, but the lasting fix came from the professionals themselves. On May 17, 1792, 24 brokers gathered under a buttonwood (sycamore) tree outside 68 Wall Street and signed a two-sentence agreement: they would deal only with each other, charge a standard commission of one-quarter percent, and give preference to fellow signers in all negotiations. Simple. But the effect was transformative. By agreeing to hold a higher standard collectively, they rebuilt confidence in the market itself. The Buttonwood Agreement is widely regarded as the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange and of organized American finance. Why Buttonwood Financial Group carries this name Boutique wealth management firms are built on process and trust. When we named our firm Buttonwood Financial Group, the choice wasn't aesthetic; it was philosophical. Our name is a daily accountability measure; a reminder that the values those brokers signed onto in 1792 — integrity, structure, and responsibility — are exactly the values our clients deserve today. The families and individuals we serve aren't looking for surface answers and financial products. They're looking for an experienced team that has been tested across market conditions, that communicates honestly, and that approaches every client relationship from a fiduciary capacity in a long-term commitment. That's what an established boutique wealth management firm looks like in practice. What experience really means Experience in this industry isn't about credentials alone. It means you have been present with clients through market downturns and periods of uncertainty. You have worked alongside families through estate complexity, business transitions, and inheritance conversations. You have coordinated tax strategy, cash flows, and generational goals at the same time; because for most families, those things can't be separated. Our Team brings that depth to every engagement. Not because we're proud of our tenure, but because the people we serve deserve to work with real people whose judgment has been informed by real world complexity and a wide range of client circumstances. The values that haven't changed in 234 years The Buttonwood Agreement was forged in a crisis to restore confidence. That context mirrors what many clients feel when they first reach out to a firm like Buttonwood. The financial world is complex, opaque, and hard to navigate. Our commitment is to bring transparency, fiduciary responsibility, and honest communication to every relationship, the same values those brokers enshrined in 1792. Roots matter. They tell you where a firm stands when things get hard. On Buttonwood Agreement Day, we honor that founding moment, and recommit to carrying it forward. Connect with Buttonwood Financial Group If you're evaluating whether your current wealth management relationship reflects these values, we'd welcome the conversation. Our advisors work with individuals, families, and business owners on comprehensive, fiduciary-driven financial plans built around your long-term goals. Frequently Asked Questions What is the Buttonwood Agreement? The Buttonwood Agreement was a compact signed on May 17, 1792, by 24 stockbrokers and merchants in New York City. It established standardized rules for securities trading, dealing only among members, and charging a fixed commission. It is considered the founding document of the New York Stock Exchange. When is Buttonwood Agreement Day? Buttonwood Agreement Day is observed annually on May 17, marking the date the original agreement was signed in 1792 outside 68 Wall Street in New York City. Why is the Buttonwood Agreement significant in finance? The Buttonwood Agreement replaced chaotic, unregulated securities auctions with a system of structured, trust-based trading. It restored public confidence after the Panic of 1792 and established the foundational principles, integrity, accountability, and standardized commissions, that governed Wall Street for nearly two centuries. What does Buttonwood Financial Group do? Buttonwood Financial Group is an independent SEC Registered Investment Adviser. A boutique wealth management firm. The firm works with individuals, families, and business owners to provide both financial planning and investment management services. By serving as the primary financial advisor and administrator, Buttonwood is essentially acting as the family's "CFO" while the client remains as the family "CEO." Buttonwood strives to organize, formalize, implement, and monitor financial strategies consistent with clients' multi-generational goals and objectives. What makes a boutique wealth management firm different? Boutique wealth management firms typically offer more personalized service, deeper advisor relationships, and a fiduciary-first approach. Advisors and their support teams generally work with fewer clients and provide more integrated guidance and may reach a deeper level of strategy across investments, tax, business and estate planning, and financial planning. How do I choose an experienced financial advisor? We often see the following criteria: Look for advisors with a fiduciary obligation, verifiable credentials (CFP, CFA, or similar), a transparent fee structure, and experience working with clients whose situations are similar to your own. Confirm the advisor's registration status at adviserinfo.sec.gov. B uttonwood Financial Group is a registered investment adviser. The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Past results are not indicative of future performance. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Please consult a qualified professional for advice specific to your situation.

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